tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Newark via Houston: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:10 AUS → 17:25 IAH
    UA 4004 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 15m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:18 IAH → 23:00 EWR
    UA 404 · United · 3h 42m · 66% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 50mAUS 16:10 to EWR 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.