tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Harrisburg via Dulles: arrives on time 60%

  1. 10:27 CLT → 11:55 IAD
    UA 4012 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 28m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:45 IAD → 13:50 MDT
    UA 4372 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 05m · 85% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip3h 23mCLT 10:27 to MDT 13:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.