tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Rochester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 75%

  1. 08:35 IAD → 09:45 PHL
    UA 4015 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 10m · 84% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 32m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 13:17 PHL → 14:48 ROC
    AA 5907 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 28m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 122 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 32m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 10mIAD 08:35 to ROC 14:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.