tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Tampa via Dulles: arrives on time 71%

  1. 13:48 SDF → 15:32 IAD
    UA 4067 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 44m · 86% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 28m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 IAD → 20:39 TPA
    UA 1140 · United · 2h 39m · 75% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 103 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 28m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 51mSDF 13:48 to TPA 20:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.