tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Providence → Detroit via Dulles: arrives on time 49%

  1. 14:46 PVD → 16:34 IAD
    UA 6159 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 48m · 79% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 IAD → 19:02 DTW
    UA 6246 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 16mPVD 14:46 to DTW 19:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.