tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Buffalo via Dulles: arrives on time 48%

  1. 19:28 LGA → 20:55 IAD
    UA 6244 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 27m · 69% on time, 14.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:26 IAD → 23:59 BUF
    UA 3516 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 84% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (14.7% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip4h 31mLGA 19:28 to BUF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.