tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Rochester via Detroit: arrives on time 61%

  1. 17:22 IAD → 19:02 DTW
    UA 6246 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 33m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 21:35 DTW → 22:54 ROC
    DL 3148 · Delta · 1h 19m · 74% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 63 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 33m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 32mIAD 17:22 to ROC 22:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.