tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Las Vegas via Dulles: arrives on time 70%

  1. 15:00 RDU → 16:21 IAD
    UA 6265 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 21m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 49m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 IAD → 22:19 LAS
    UA 1764 · United · 5h 09m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 184 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 49m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip10h 19mRDU 15:00 to LAS 22:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.