tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Houston: arrives on time 85%

  1. 06:15 SDF → 07:42 IAH
    UA 6266 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 27m · 88% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 13m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:55 IAH → 12:14 LAS
    UA 1799 · United · 3h 19m · 88% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 148 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 13m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip8h 59mSDF 06:15 to LAS 12:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.