tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Houston: arrives on time 81%

  1. 06:15 SDF → 07:42 IAH
    UA 6266 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 27m · 88% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 58m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:40 IAH → 10:34 PHX
    UA 1895 · United · 2h 54m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 73 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 58m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 19mSDF 06:15 to PHX 10:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.