tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Knoxville → Chicago via Houston: arrives on time 60%

  1. 07:15 TYS → 08:40 IAH
    UA 6298 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 25m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 IAH → 12:29 ORD
    UA 2124 · United · 2h 54m · 86% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Knoxville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 14mTYS 07:15 to ORD 12:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.