tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Nashville via Houston: arrives on time 54%

  1. 15:41 SDF → 17:10 IAH
    UA 6310 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 29m · 78% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 IAH → 20:16 BNA
    UA 4785 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 08m · 73% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 32mSDF 15:41 to BNA 20:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.