tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Detroit via Houston: arrives on time 60%

  1. 15:41 SDF → 17:10 IAH
    UA 6310 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 29m · 78% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 IAH → 22:24 DTW
    UA 685 · United · 2h 54m · 71% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 43mSDF 15:41 to DTW 22:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.