tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Philadelphia via Houston: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:41 SDF → 17:10 IAH
    UA 6310 · United, flown by Mesa · 2h 29m · 78% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 IAH → 22:43 PHL
    UA 3991 · United, flown by Mesa · 3h 38m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 15 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 02mSDF 15:41 to PHL 22:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.