tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 71%

  1. 07:15 SDF → 07:56 ORD
    UA 3422 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 90% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:00 ORD → 11:36 BNA
    AA 1650 · American · 1h 37m · 78% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 04m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 22mSDF 07:15 to BNA 11:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.