tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 82%

  1. 07:15 SDF → 07:56 ORD
    UA 3422 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 90% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:00 ORD → 13:04 DCA
    UA 1381 · United · 2h 04m · 86% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 79 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 04m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip5h 49mSDF 07:15 to DCA 13:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.