tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Miami via Chicago: arrives on time 74%

  1. 07:15 SDF → 07:56 ORD
    UA 3422 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 90% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 37m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:33 ORD → 14:57 MIA
    UA 1620 · United · 3h 24m · 77% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 112 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 37m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip7h 42mSDF 07:15 to MIA 14:57, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.