tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 65%

  1. 07:15 SDF → 07:56 ORD
    UA 3422 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 90% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:00 ORD → 11:58 DCA
    UA 2218 · United · 1h 58m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 43mSDF 07:15 to DCA 11:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.