tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 86%

  1. 07:15 SDF → 07:56 ORD
    UA 3422 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 90% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:02 ORD → 11:03 PHX
    UA 2225 · United · 4h 01m · 95% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time86%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip6h 48mSDF 07:15 to PHX 11:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.