tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Milwaukee via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:01 BNA → 17:04 ORD
    UA 3440 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 03m · 55% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 18:58 ORD → 19:59 MKE
    AA 4941 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 01m · 64% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 54m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 58mBNA 15:01 to MKE 19:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.