tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Dulles via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:01 BNA → 17:04 ORD
    UA 3440 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 03m · 55% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:12 ORD → 21:22 IAD
    UA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 21mBNA 15:01 to IAD 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.