tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Washington via Newark: arrives on time 23%

  1. 15:27 MCI → 19:30 EWR
    UA 3522 · United, flown by Republic · 3h 03m · 77% on time, 10.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 EWR → 21:53 DCA
    UA 4457 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 33m · 45% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (10.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 26mMCI 15:27 to DCA 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.