tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Chicago via Newark: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:27 MCI → 19:30 EWR
    UA 3522 · United, flown by Republic · 3h 03m · 77% on time, 10.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:19 EWR → 22:06 ORD
    UA 546 · United · 2h 47m · 69% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (10.8% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 39mMCI 15:27 to ORD 22:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.