tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Manchester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 56%

  1. 12:55 IAD → 14:10 PHL
    UA 3541 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 15m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 20m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:06 MHT
    AA 5942 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 36m · 61% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 20m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 11mIAD 12:55 to MHT 19:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.