tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hilton Head Island → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:05 HHH → 16:51 ORD
    UA 3542 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 46m · 67% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 21:10 DCA
    UA 1369 · United · 2h 10m · 50% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 05mHHH 15:05 to DCA 21:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.