tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Jacksonville via Newark: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:53 STL → 20:30 EWR
    UA 3564 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 37m · 61% on time, 13.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 EWR → 23:59 JAX
    UA 2335 · United · 2h 37m · 74% on time, 3.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (13.9% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (3.1% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 06mSTL 16:53 to JAX 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.