tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Newark via Pittsburgh: arrives on time 31%

  1. 17:30 IAD → 18:40 PIT
    UA 3579 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 10m · 73% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Pittsburgh (PIT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:30 PIT → 21:12 EWR
    UA 3565 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 42m · 68% on time, 22.2% cancelled

Total trip 3h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (22.2% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip3h 42mIAD 17:30 to EWR 21:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.