tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Manchester via Dulles: arrives on time 60%

  1. 15:10 PHL → 16:18 IAD
    UA 3593 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 08m · 86% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 IAD → 19:02 MHT
    UA 4932 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 47m · 77% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection86%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 14% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (86%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip3h 52mPHL 15:10 to MHT 19:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.