tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Newark: arrives on time 82%

  1. 06:30 SDF → 08:38 EWR
    UA 3594 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 90% on time, 4.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 47m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:25 EWR → 14:53 LAS
    UA 1864 · United · 5h 28m · 86% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 11h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 182 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 47m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (4.4% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip11h 23mSDF 06:30 to LAS 14:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.