tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → San Francisco via Newark: arrives on time 40%

  1. 15:15 DTW → 17:10 EWR
    UA 3611 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 55m · 76% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 EWR → 21:28 SFO
    UA 1844 · United · 6h 28m · 62% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip9h 13mDTW 15:15 to SFO 21:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.