tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Chicago via Newark: arrives on time 75%

  1. 06:00 ROC → 07:20 EWR
    UA 3626 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 20m · 94% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:20 EWR → 11:04 ORD
    UA 2290 · United · 2h 44m · 83% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Rochester). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip6h 04mROC 06:00 to ORD 11:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.