tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Chicago via Dulles: arrives on time 60%

  1. 17:45 MCI → 21:26 IAD
    UA 3628 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 41m · 82% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 IAD → 23:31 ORD
    UA 1738 · United · 2h 11m · 80% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 46mMCI 17:45 to ORD 23:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.