tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Indianapolis via Dulles: arrives on time 48%

  1. 17:45 MCI → 21:26 IAD
    UA 3628 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 41m · 82% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:16 IAD → 23:59 IND
    UA 4021 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 43m · 67% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 14mMCI 17:45 to IND 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.