tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → Washington via Newark: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:42 CLE → 19:30 EWR
    UA 3633 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 48m · 80% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 EWR → 21:53 DCA
    UA 4457 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 33m · 45% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip4h 11mCLE 17:42 to DCA 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.