Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Portland via Dulles: arrives on time 45%

  1. 14:51 LGA → 16:35 IAD
    UA 3688 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 44m · 63% on time, 5.1% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 IAD → 19:27 PWM
    UA 3651 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 57m · 91% on time, 13.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (5.1% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (13.5% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip4h 36mLGA 14:51 to PWM 19:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.