tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 62%

  1. 09:00 SDF → 09:38 ORD
    UA 3696 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:25 ORD → 13:23 IAH
    UA 2638 · United · 2h 58m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip5h 23mSDF 09:00 to IAH 13:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.