tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Dulles: arrives on time 81%

  1. 10:05 SDF → 11:45 IAD
    UA 3717 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:00 IAD → 15:09 LAS
    UA 2156 · United · 5h 09m · 91% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip8h 04mSDF 10:05 to LAS 15:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.