tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 80%

  1. 12:25 ATL → 14:36 PHL
    AA 4338 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 11m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:34 PHL → 17:45 SDF
    AA 4720 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 11m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 20mATL 12:25 to SDF 17:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.