tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Traverse City via Washington: arrives on time 73%

  1. 05:58 ORD → 09:15 DCA
    AA 4339 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 17m · 84% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 05m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:20 DCA → 13:27 TVC
    AA 4138 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 07m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 80 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 05m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 29mORD 05:58 to TVC 13:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.