tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Bozeman via Chicago: arrives on time 56%

  1. 07:59 JFK → 10:02 ORD
    AA 4356 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 03m · 85% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:49 ORD → 16:13 BZN
    AA 1639 · American · 3h 24m · 63% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 10h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 182 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 47m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip10h 14mJFK 07:59 to BZN 16:13, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.