tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Charleston via New York: arrives on time 50%

  1. 10:35 BNA → 14:03 LGA
    AA 4364 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 30m · 73% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:59 LGA → 17:23 CHS
    AA 4588 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 24m · 80% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 48mBNA 10:35 to CHS 17:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.