tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → San Antonio via Chicago: arrives on time 71%

  1. 10:11 JFK → 12:05 ORD
    AA 4365 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 54m · 89% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:59 ORD → 17:59 SAT
    AA 4176 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 00m · 80% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 129 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 54m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 48mJFK 10:11 to SAT 17:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.