tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Los Angeles via New York: arrives on time 55%

  1. 12:21 BOS → 13:50 JFK
    AA 4366 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 80% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:40 JFK → 17:48 LAX
    AA 255 · American · 6h 08m · 81% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 27mBOS 12:21 to LAX 17:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.