tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Nashville via New York: arrives on time 50%

  1. 12:21 BOS → 13:50 JFK
    AA 4366 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 80% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:39 JFK → 16:21 BNA
    AA 4710 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 42m · 75% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 00mBOS 12:21 to BNA 16:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.