tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Detroit via New York: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:11 BUF → 19:40 LGA
    AA 4378 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 60% on time, 16.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 LGA → 22:49 DTW
    AA 4598 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 05m · 67% on time, 7.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (16.1% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (7.8% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 38mBUF 18:11 to DTW 22:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.