tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → Los Angeles via New York: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:05 CLE → 18:59 JFK
    AA 4389 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 54m · 71% on time, 13.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 JFK → 23:24 LAX
    AA 117 · American · 6h 24m · 74% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (13.9% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip9h 19mCLE 17:05 to LAX 23:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.