tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Miami via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:46 BOS → 19:29 JFK
    AA 4390 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 43m · 57% on time, 12.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 JFK → 00:21 MIA +1 day
    AA 2026 · American · 3h 21m · 59% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (12.5% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 35mBOS 17:46 to MIA 00:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.