tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Martha's Vineyard via New York: arrives on time 81%

  1. 06:59 DCA → 08:20 LGA
    AA 4393 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 21m · 88% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 47m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:07 LGA → 13:21 MVY
    AA 4570 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 14m · 90% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 182 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 47m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip6h 22mDCA 06:59 to MVY 13:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.