Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Manchester → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 50%
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18:18 MHT → 20:30 ORDAA 4400 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 12m · 78% on time, 4.2% cancelled
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55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:25 ORD → 00:33 BWI +1 dayAA 4663 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 79% on time, 4.5% cancelled
Total trip 6h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 15mMHT 18:18 to BWI 00:33, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.