tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → New York via Buffalo: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:46 ORD → 09:37 BUF
    AA 4413 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 51m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 33m layover in Buffalo (BUF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:10 BUF → 12:36 LGA
    AA 4379 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 86% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 48 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 33m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip4h 50mORD 06:46 to LGA 12:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.